If there was a moment when President Donald Trump’s carefully crafted diplomatic initiative was derailed and Iran’s fate was sealed, it was on June 4, when Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,

Foreign ministers from the United Kingdom, France and Germany met with their Iranian counterpart in Geneva on Friday, marking the most significant known diplomatic talks between Tehran and Western governments since Israel launched a surprise offensive against Iran one week ago.

Though roughly equal in the number of troops, the two militaries bring strikingly different tactics and firepower.

European diplomats held talks with Iran. Israel is waiting for the United States to get directly involved. President Trump said he would make a decision about attacking Iran “within the next two weeks.

To get a better sense of what’s driving the oil market and what economic risks might lie ahead, MM caught up with Rory Johnston, an oil market analyst at research service Commodity Context who’s been following all of this closely.