Iran issued a one-month ultimatum to end the US-Israeli conflict. Airspace closure by May 8 at 15% YES, by May 31 at 37% YES.

Trump considers Iran peace proposal as Strait of Hormuz traffic halts. Blockade lift by May 31, 2026 at 27.5% YES.

US Defense partners with tech firms for AI military initiative. Anthropic providing Mythos to US government by April 30, 2026 at 100% YES.

Market Snapshot The Spirit Airlines shutdown market is currently priced at 100% YES, with the question resolved due to ...

Israel intercepted projectiles from Lebanon amid ongoing hostilities. Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon by June 30, 2026 at 9.5 ...

The Israeli Defense Minister’s comments suggest ongoing military tensions, which appear consistent with the potential for ...

Kuwait halts oil exports for the first time since the Gulf War. US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz lifted by May 31 at 27.5% ...

Q1 2026 US GDP growth confirmed at 2.0%, contradicting market predictions. Growth below 1.0% priced at 100% YES.

In the “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026” market, the current odds are priced at 5.8% YES, down from 6% 24 hours ...

IRGC warns the US as Iran consolidates power amid leadership uncertainty. Iran closes airspace by May 8 at 14.5% YES, by May ...

The Polymarket question on whether Donald Trump will announce the lifting of the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by May ...

Israel orders evacuations in southern Lebanon amid military operations. Withdrawal by May 31, 2026 at 2.4% YES; by June 30, ...