Iran issued a one-month ultimatum to end the US-Israeli conflict. Airspace closure by May 8 at 15% YES, by May 31 at 37% YES.

Israel intercepted projectiles from Lebanon amid ongoing hostilities. Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon by June 30, 2026 at 9.5 ...

The Israeli Defense Minister’s comments suggest ongoing military tensions, which appear consistent with the potential for ...

US Defense partners with tech firms for AI military initiative. Anthropic providing Mythos to US government by April 30, 2026 at 100% YES.

Trump considers Iran peace proposal as Strait of Hormuz traffic halts. Blockade lift by May 31, 2026 at 27.5% YES.

Market Snapshot The Spirit Airlines shutdown market is currently priced at 100% YES, with the question resolved due to ...

Q1 2026 US GDP growth confirmed at 2.0%, contradicting market predictions. Growth below 1.0% priced at 100% YES.

Kuwait halts oil exports for the first time since the Gulf War. US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz lifted by May 31 at 27.5% ...

In the “Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 on May 2?” market, the current pricing reflects a 0.1% YES. This unchanged pricing ...

IRGC warns the US as Iran consolidates power amid leadership uncertainty. Iran closes airspace by May 8 at 14.5% YES, by May ...

Red Cross warns of renewed Iran attacks amid airspace closure concerns. Iran closes its airspace by May 8 at 14.5% YES, by ...

The Polymarket question on whether Donald Trump will announce the lifting of the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by May ...