Several things happen on Fed Day--especially on the 4 out of 8 examples with updated rate forecasts from Fed members.  The official announcement of a rate cut is typically the least important aspect.

All eyes are on tonight's Fed meeting, where a 25bp rate cut is widely expected. The dollar has been selling off ahead of this event, but there are a few risks. For example, we could see short-dated US rates back up a little and the dollar get a brief bid if the Fed Dot Plots continues to show just 50bp of rate cuts this year compared to the 70bp now priced It's FOMC day,

The Fed’s dot plot is a chart that records each Fed official’s projection for the central bank’s key short-term interest rate. The dot plot is updated every three months and is meant to provide insight into the Fed’s future rate decisions, with the ...

Whereas last week saw the bond market continue selling off without overt provocation, the first two days of the present week have seen far more equanimity and even resilience. Today's example involved a modest rally following a mixed bag of Retail Sales data.

All eyes are on tonight's Fed meeting, where a 25bp rate cut is widely expected. The dollar has been selling off ahead of this event, but there are a few risks. For example, we could see short-dated U